On 28 May, the Notaires du Grand Paris released their first-quarter figures. The Paris market is stabilising, prices are holding, volumes have only retreated in appearance. The notaires themselves, however, speak of a fragile equilibrium, liable to break at the first shock.

Two readings circulate in our clients' conversations. The first: prices are still falling, let us wait. The second: everything is about to rebound, let us buy tomorrow. Neither stands up to scrutiny of the figures.

Our reading differs. The negotiation window open for the past eighteen months will not widen further. It could begin to close this summer. Here is why, and what that changes for a buyer already engaged in a search.

Paris market: the negotiation window may close this summer

The Notaires du Grand Paris have published their figures for the first quarter of 2026. The Paris market is stabilising, prices are holding. But the balance is fragile, and the ECB meeting on 5 June could reconfigure everything. A practical read for a buyer in an active search.

The notaires recorded 29,130 sales of existing homes in Île-de-France in the first quarter of 2026, down 3% year on year. In Paris, the headline decline reaches 13%. These figures, troubling on the surface, demand a careful reading. Early 2025 had been artificially inflated by buyers anticipating the rise in transfer duties (droits de mutation) voted in April across several Île-de-France départements. Acquirers had rushed to sign before the new rates took effect. The basis for comparison is distorted. Adjusting for that technical effect, the Paris market has not retreated: it has stabilised.

Prices confirm this. In Paris, the average price of older flats stood at €9,580/m² at the end of February 2026, up 0.9% year on year. The projections drawn from pre-contracts (the indicator the notaires consider the most reliable, since it anticipates signings three months ahead) point to a further rise of 0.6% in Paris in the second quarter. The line that says "prices will keep falling, let us wait" no longer holds. It made sense in 2023; it makes none in 2026.

The reverse does not hold either. The market is not climbing again. The notaires use a phrase worth noting: they describe a market "in fits and starts" (en dents de scie), where the slightest economic or geopolitical event can derail the dynamic. That caution reflects a technical reality. The French 10-year OAT remains at 3.68%, under geopolitical pressure, and the average 20-year mortgage rate has climbed back to 3.39% at Meilleurtaux. Lending grids have tightened in recent months.

The pivot point is called 5 June. That is the date of the next ECB meeting. After five consecutive holds on policy rates since July 2025, markets now expect a 0.25-point rise on the deposit rate. The cause comes down to two words: inflation is back. In the euro zone it reached 3.0% in April, against 1.9% in February, fuelled by tensions in the Middle East. Even a modest rise in the cost of money feeds through to mortgage grids within weeks.

For a buyer who has been searching in Paris for several months, two situations stand apart. First case: the financing is locked in, the perimeter is defined, the loan offer is valid. Closing before the summer carries an objective benefit. The negotiation margins our hunters still secure today, on average 6% off the asking price, presuppose a balance of power that a rise in rates can shift. A vendor whose property draws fewer solvent buyers holds his price more firmly.

Second case: the search is still being built, financing is not secured, the perimeter is wavering. Do not accelerate the decision. Accelerate the preparation. Presenting in six months' time a fully assembled financing file, a clear perimeter and the capacity to sign quickly will count for far more than today. That is the difference between chasing a market and arriving in it ready.

We do not predict the future. Nor do the notaires, and their caution is instructive. When professionals who work on authenticated deeds, that is, on transactions actually signed rather than on online listings, describe the market as fragile, we listen. The current window is not a historic opportunity. It will close slowly, and has already partly closed for unprepared buyers.

Lock in your loan offer before the ECB

A loan offer, once issued, remains valid for thirty days after acceptance. For a buyer in an active search, asking your bank for an updated simulation before 5 June lets you freeze current conditions. If a signing follows in the weeks that follow, the rate grid in force at the issue of the offer takes precedence over any later changes.

In the meantime, if a project is taking shape, we remain at your disposal for an initial conversation. We assess your brief against the market and deliver an unvarnished reading.