An announcement from the new city hall has been doing the rounds this week: from 2027, Paris will double its tax on vacant dwellings, and parts of the press have read into it, sometimes too quickly, the promise of twenty thousand apartments returning to the market. For a buyer, the temptation is to read this as a signal that prices may ease.

We are putting forward a more measured reading this Sunday. The measure exists, its timetable is fixed, its rates are known. Its likely impact on transactions, however, deserves to be looked at without illusion: for a wealthy owner holding a vacant pied-à-terre, the bill remains modest, and the Paris market has already been gaining ground in volume since the winter, without waiting for the reform.

There remains one case, and one only, where the 2027 timetable becomes a concrete lever at the negotiating table. We set it out precisely, and give the question to ask from the very first viewings in order to identify it.

Vacancy in Paris: why the new tax will not bring prices down

Paris will double its tax on vacant dwellings in 2027. To many, the measure heralds a breath of fresh air for buyers. The mechanism is real, its effect on prices will be marginal. Here is what to retain, and the only way to turn it to your advantage.

The announcement came on 14 April. The new Paris executive, led by Emmanuel Grégoire, presented its first housing measures and confirmed the near-doubling of the tax on vacant dwellings from 2027. The legal framework is set out in article 108 of the 2026 finance act, which merges the two existing schemes (the TLV and the THLV) into a single tax: the *taxe sur la vacance des locaux d'habitation*. The rates applicable in Paris will rise from 17% to 30% of the cadastral rental value after one year of vacancy, and from 34% to 60% after two years. For an average apartment vacant for two years or more, the city estimates the annual bill at around four thousand euros, against two thousand today.

The city is hoping for twenty thousand homes returned to the market. The figure plays well; it nonetheless calls for perspective. The INSEE recorded 136,957 vacant dwellings in Paris in 2022, close to one tenth of the stock, a pool growing by roughly seven thousand units a year. A significant share of this will escape the tax. The *code général des impôts* exempts involuntary vacancy (a property offered for sale or to let at market price without finding a taker), dwellings occupied for more than ninety consecutive days a year, and homes requiring works whose cost exceeds a quarter of the property's value. In Paris, the INSEE Île-de-France describes this vacancy as largely frictional, tied to the number of small older apartments with a high turnover rate: estates in progress, sales in preparation, works between two occupations.

That leaves the city's core target: pieds-à-terre kept empty by owners of multiple properties. According to Emmanuel Grégoire, 40% of private dwellings in Paris belong to individuals holding at least five properties. For them, the question is not one of accounting but of trade-off: four thousand euros a year is a modest fraction of the opportunity cost of a Haussmann pied-à-terre held for its location rather than its yield. A report from the Cour des comptes published in 2025 judged the results of the existing taxes "limited", with no significant effect on the overall stock of vacant dwellings despite the 2023 uplift.

The Paris market, moreover, did not wait for the reform to find its second wind. According to the Chambre des Notaires de Paris, sales volumes in the capital rose by 10% year on year between December 2025 and February 2026. The average price per square metre stood at 9,806 euros on 1 June 2026, on notarial transactions. Pressure to sell comes from rates, from estates, from patrimonial trade-offs, rarely from a tax. Market specialists put it plainly: the measure may put properties back in the window, it is not enough to trigger a fall, because Paris demand remains in a league of its own.

For a buyer, the practical conclusion fits in one line: do not postpone a project on a bet that 2027 will deliver. The mistake would be to wait a few months in the hope of an adjustment that will not materialise at market scale. The legislative calendar has its own rhythm, yours is set by your family, your tax position, the financing rates you are securing today. The two do not align.

There is, however, a concrete use of the measure, at the negotiating table. Facing a vendor whose apartment has been empty for eighteen months or more, the prospect of an annual tax doubling from two thousand to four thousand euros, combined with the law's provision that vacancy preceding 1 January 2027 will be taken into account, restores weight to the passing of time. The calendar becomes an argument. To identify it, one question is enough at the first viewings: how long has the property been unoccupied? The answer, or the absence of one, immediately steers the rest of the discussion.

One technical point deserves to be known by the buyer in turn. By acquiring a property already vacant for more than two years, you do not become liable to the tax straight away: the period of vacancy is assessed in relation to a single owner, and a fresh two-year clock starts under your tenure. A useful fact if you are contemplating lengthy works before moving in, or a deferred letting timetable.

Ask the occupancy question from the first viewing

Three words to add to your checklist: how long empty? If the answer exceeds twelve months, ask to see the latest water or electricity bill, and check whether the property had been offered to let at market price. It is a data point the hunter brings into the negotiation file.

In the meantime, if a project is taking shape, we remain at your disposal for an initial conversation. We assess your brief against the market and deliver an unvarnished reading.