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Market analysis

Paris property market trends: 2026 analysis

The Paris property market in 2026 is defined by a stabilisation after correction. Transaction volume in Paris has dropped 25% over the past 12 months, while mortgage rates average around 3.2%. Home Select, completing over 100 transactions per year since 2011, observes a gradual return of solvent buyers and attractive negotiation margins.

Last analysis: February 2026 By Jean Mascla

10 523 €

average price / m²

-12%

since 2022 peak

3.2%

average mortgage rate

6-8%

negotiation margin

Market conditions 2026

The Paris property market has undergone a significant correction since the 2022 peak. Prices have fallen 10-15% depending on the district, with marked variations between areas. This correction is mainly driven by the sharp rise in mortgage rates (from 1% to over 4% in 18 months), which excluded many buyers from the market.

In 2026, the market is entering a phase of stabilisation. Mortgage rates, after peaking at 4.5% at the end of 2023, are settling around 3-3.5%. The ECB has begun a monetary easing policy, and banks are regaining appetite for mortgage lending, with loosening approval criteria.

Structural support factors remain in place: scarcity of supply in Paris (no new construction possible), international attractiveness of the capital, and sustained rental demand. These elements limit the risk of a deeper correction.

Price evolution by area

Prime districts (6th, 7th, 4th)

-5 to -8%

Limited correction. Scarcity of supply and sustained international demand protect these areas. Exceptional properties (views, terrace, period features) are holding particularly well.

Established Right Bank (8th, 9th, 16th, 17th)

-8 to -12%

Average correction. Gradual return of buyers for quality properties. Well-located family apartments are finding buyers with reasonable negotiation.

Eastern Paris (10th, 11th, 12th, 20th)

-10 to -14%

More pronounced correction. These areas, which had risen sharply, are experiencing a stronger adjustment. Opportunities for first-time buyers with solid profiles.

Northern periphery (18th, 19th)

-12 to -15%

Significant correction. Attractive prices but longer selling times. Long-term appreciation potential for patient buyers.

Transaction volume

-25%

volume vs 2022

+30%

available supply

50 days

average time

The number of transactions in Paris has dropped 25% compared to the 2022 peak. This decline is accompanied by a 30% increase in available supply, resulting in longer selling times and a balance of power favourable to buyers.

Market data shows that transactions now concentrate on two segments: small units (studios, 1-beds) which remain liquid thanks to investors, and prestige properties (1M€+) where international buyers, often with no need for financing, maintain sustained demand.

Mortgage rates and financing

Mortgage rates stand at around 3.2% on average over 20 years at the start of 2026. After the 4.5% peak at the end of 2023, the easing is gradual but real. Banks, having tightened their criteria, are starting to lend more easily to solid profiles again.

The impact on borrowing capacity remains significant compared to 2021 (rates at 1%). At equivalent income, a household borrows 20-25% less than 3 years ago. This partly explains the price correction, which has partially restored purchasing power.

Key consideration: banks now require a minimum deposit of 15-20% (compared to 10% previously). First-time buyers without substantial savings remain penalised.

Interior of a Haussmann apartment in Paris
View over Parisian rooftops from a balcony

What we observe on the ground

Home Select Insights

Off-market is back : well-advised sellers prefer discretion. Our hunters access 20-30% of properties never listed on portals.

Negotiation is possible again : our hunters achieve an average of 6% below asking price, compared to 2-3% in 2021-2022.

Energy rating is decisive : poorly rated properties (F-G) suffer 15-20% discounts. Renovated properties with good ratings sell faster and at better prices.

International buyers are active : American, British and Gulf buyers are taking advantage of the weak euro and Paris’s favourable post-Brexit positioning.

Outlook 2026-2027

Central scenario (most likely)

60%

Stabilisation then slight recovery. Prices stabilise by end of 2026, with a moderate recovery in 2027 (+2-3%). The gradual rate decrease (towards 3%) brings buyers back to the market. Prime areas recover first.

Optimistic scenario

25%

Faster recovery. More marked rate decrease (towards 2.5%), renewed confidence, return of institutional investors. Price increases of 5-8% in 2026 in the best areas.

Pessimistic scenario

15%

Extended correction. Economic recession, rising unemployment, rates that don't fall. Continued decline (-5 to -10% additional), selling times lengthen further.

About Paris market trends

Will property prices fall in Paris in 2026?

After a 10-15% correction between 2022 and 2025, prices are stabilising in 2026. Our central scenario (60% probability) foresees stabilisation by end of 2026 followed by a slight recovery (+2-3%) in 2027, driven by easing mortgage rates. Significant declines appear to be behind us.

Is it the right time to buy an apartment in Paris?

Conditions are favourable for buyers in 2026: more choice (supply up 30%), less competition, negotiation margins of 5-8% on average. Mortgage rates, around 3.2%, remain higher than in 2021 but are stabilising. For buyers with a solid deposit (15-20%), this is a window of opportunity.

What is the impact of mortgage rates on the Paris market?

The rise in rates from 1% to 4% between 2021 and 2023 reduced borrowing capacity by 20-25%. This particularly impacted family apartments (3-4 rooms) and first-time buyers. Stabilisation around 3-3.5% is enabling a gradual return of solvent buyers.

What types of properties sell fastest in Paris?

Small units (studios, 1-beds) remain the most liquid, driven by investors and first-time buyers. Prestige properties (1M+) also sell well, as international clientele pay cash. Family apartments (3-4 rooms) in good condition have the longest selling times but offer the best negotiation margins.
Jean Mascla

Jean Mascla

Founder of Home Select, property hunter in Paris since 2011

Jean has supported over 1,200 buyers in their property projects in Paris and Île-de-France. His market analysis is based on 15 years of field experience and data from all transactions completed by the Home Select team.

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